Written by: Kim Birch | The review was last updated: 03 July 2024 | Fact-check by: Jasmin Williams
Blackjack's a hit with punters for good reason. It's got better odds than most pokies or table games, and if you know your stuff, you can really trim down the house edge. It's not just about luck - you need skill, strategy, and a solid grasp of the game to come out on top. That's why blackjack's a top pick for savvy players who've done their homework.
Whether you're playing single or multi-deck, blackjack can be a real money-spinner. But don't expect to rock up and win big straight away. It takes time to master the rules and strategies. You'll need to put in the yards, watching how the cards fall and working out your chances. It's not easy, but it's worth the effort if you're serious about winning.
Of course, lady luck still plays her part. Even the best players can't control what cards they're dealt. But by keeping an eye on the cards and doing some quick maths, you can give yourself an edge. If you're in it for the long haul, focus on steady, smaller wins rather than trying to hit the jackpot every time. That's the ticket to becoming a consistent winner at the blackjack table.
Blackjack odds in a six-deck game: Pretty fair, mate.
Probability is a branch of maths that looks at the chances of something happening. Punters use probability in heaps of casino games to work out their odds of winning or losing. It's a handy skill for card games, giving players an edge once they've got the hang of it. The basic formula is dead simple: Number of ways something can happen divided by total possible outcomes. Take a deck of cards - 52 cards total, one of each type. Want to know the odds of pulling the ace of diamonds? It's 1/52.
You can also show these probabilities as percentages, from 0 to 100. If you know the chance of something happening, you can figure out the chance of it not happening too. Say there's a 30% chance of something - that means there's a 70% chance it won't happen. Odds are another way to express probability. Using our ace of diamonds example, the odds of pulling it from a full deck are 51 to 1.
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Let's dive into some blackjack lingo and the odds of winning and losing. Positive and negative win rates are key terms used to describe your chances at any point in the game. The house rules have the biggest impact on your odds. Another important concept is true odds, which is when the payout matches the probability percentage. These terms are often used by seasoned blackjack players.
The main goal in blackjack is to beat the dealer's hand without going over 21. If you do, you're out. You've got two options each turn - hit or stand. Your choice can make or break your game. The basic strategy chart can help you make the right call. Our main blackjack guide has all the cheat sheets you need to up your game and play like a pro.
Knowing your odds of busting is crucial. It gives you a good idea of where you stand and helps you plan your next move. For instance, if your hand totals 11 or less, you've got 0% chance of busting. With 12, 13, or 14, your odds of busting are 31%, 39%, and 56% respectively. You'll notice the higher your hand, the more likely you are to bust. This knowledge shapes your decisions. For example, with 19 or 20, you've got an 85% and 92% chance of busting, so hitting would be a bad move.
Now, let's talk about another crucial probability - your chances of hitting blackjack. In a single-deck game, you've got a 4.83% chance of getting an ace and a 10-value card on the first deal. This drops to 4.77% in a two-deck game. Here at BETO, we've reviewed some top online casinos for Kiwi punters. You can put all your blackjack knowledge to use in these online games. Just pick your favourite variant and go for the best odds. Remember, in the world of blackjack, knowledge is your best bet!
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Return to Player is a common term in blackjack, linked to winning odds. Return to Player or RTP calculates your theoretical payout, shown as a percentage. This percentage indicates how much you might get back after placing a bet.
RTP is directly related to the house edge. You can work out the RTP for any blackjack variant if you know the house edge. Different blackjack variations have different RTP values.
Take Atlantic City Blackjack by Microgaming, played with eight decks and standard rules. It has a house edge of 0.46%, giving an RTP of 99.64%. In theory, you'd get $99.64 back from a $100 bet. This is considered fair, but remember, RTP applies to all players over time, not individual sessions. Games with a lower house edge are usually better for players using optimal strategy, as your bankroll lasts longer and your expected value improves.
The image below shows how blackjack odds differ across game versions, applicable to both live and online blackjack.
Blackjack probabilities and your chances. Use top basic strategy.
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Kiwi casinos' edge: How the house stays ahead in blackjack
Let's break down the concept of the house edge. It's key to understanding blackjack odds and how pokies work in general. The house edge is the percentage of each bet that the casino keeps for itself. Casinos build this into their games to ensure they turn a profit. It's this small advantage that keeps them in business.
Here's an example to make it clearer. Say a blackjack game has a 1% house edge. This means the casino pockets 1% of all bets placed. If you're betting $100 a hand, you can expect to lose $1 per bet on average. If you're playing 60 hands an hour, that's $60 down the drain each hour.
Double Zero Roulette, a popular online pokie, has a house edge of about 5% (5.26% to be exact). With this higher percentage, if you're making 60 $100 bets an hour, you're looking at losing $300 hourly. Keep in mind, the house edge only applies over many bets. It's a statistical average, so individual bets can still result in wins, losses, or ties.
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Blackjack's a favourite among Kiwi punters, largely due to its low house edge. Your chances of winning hinge on this value, which varies between different versions of the game. Some blackjack variants have a higher house edge, making them less favourable for players. Most blackjack games can offer a house edge under 1% if you use a bit of strategy. With the right skills and approach, you can whittle this down even further.
Having a solid strategy and sticking to it is crucial in blackjack. The house edge is calculated with these strategies in mind, so they're an essential part of every game. Using the right strategy can slash the house edge to as low as 0.5%. But if you ignore basic strategy, you could see the house edge jump up to 2%.
Certain blackjack rules come into play when calculating the house edge. You can get a handle on this by swotting up on all possible hands and moves. There are heaps of scenarios in a game, and by prepping yourself, you can tilt the house edge in your favour. But basic strategies alone won't cut it. You need the nous to put your plan into action when it counts. This is where many players come unstuck. To win consistently, you need discipline and self-control. You've got to remember and use the moves suggested by your base strategy. Many players lack the patience to stick to the plan.
Even if you lose a few hands, it's crucial to keep your cool and stick to your strategy to get the most out of your blackjack bets. Trying to recoup temporary losses by ditching your strategy is a rookie mistake and will lead to bigger losses in the long run.
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Boost your blackjack chances at the casino in Aotearoa
There are a few ways to boost your odds in blackjack. These tips can help shift things in your favour. Learning card counting systems can improve your game, but it's a pretty advanced technique that takes some serious practice. The pros use it to keep tabs on every card during play. For beginners, it's best to nail the basic strategy before tackling card counting. When you combine basic strategy with card counting, you're really onto a winner.
Some card counting methods aren't too tricky, even for newbies. It helps you work out the ratio of high to low cards and figure out your theoretical average win rate per hour. But remember, you can only control so much. Blackjack's a regulated game, so the house edge will always get its cut. Instead of chasing small wins, think big picture and plan for the long haul.
Another way to chip away at the house edge is through casino comps. While you're playing, try to score some high-value comps to give yourself an edge. Comps are short for complimentary - they're perks you get for placing bets. What you get depends on how long you play and how much you bet. If you play it smart, these perks can be worth more than the house edge.
Make sure you hand over your Player Card to the dealer when you start if you want to claim your comps at the end. There are a few other tricks to maximise your session. Joining a full table slows down your play, which can work in your favour. The fewer hands you play, the smaller your potential losses. You'll still earn comps, but with less risk. And remember, minimising the house edge as much as possible can lead to more valuable comps.
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As we've covered, tweaks to the game rules directly impact the house edge, which in turn affects your potential winnings. Different blackjack variants come with their own set of rules and house edge values. It's worth noting that while some versions stick to a fixed ruleset, others allow casinos to adjust the rules as they see fit. This is crucial info when you're deciding which version to play.
One key difference between game variants is the number of decks used. Here's a general rule of thumb: fewer decks typically mean a lower house edge. More decks in play push the house edge up. This is because you're more likely to hit a natural blackjack with fewer decks in the mix. For example, going from a single deck to eight decks bumps the house edge up by 0.61%.
Another factor that sways the house edge is the soft 17 rule, which dictates how the dealer plays. Depending on the casino, this rule determines whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17. Casinos that make the dealer stand on soft 17 are better for punters, so keep an eye out for those variants. If the rules say the dealer must hit on soft 17, the house edge jumps by 0.21%.
Your options to double down or split also influence the house edge. Generally, more options for these moves lower the house edge. If you can't double down after a split, the house edge rises by 0.14%. Not being able to hit split aces or re-split aces pushes it up by 0.18% and 0.07% respectively. In blackjack, the payout is another key consideration. A shift from the standard 3 to 2, or sometimes 6 to 5, means a hefty 1.30% increase in the house edge.
This breakdown of blackjack shows how tweaking the rules can significantly shift your odds of winning.
Blackjack rule tweaks and how they affect your chances at the table
The bonuses in different online pokies can seriously shake up your odds of winning.
Here at BETO, we reckon all online blackjack punters should make the most of these bonuses to boost their winnings. Get clued up on the game's bonus features, and you could be raking it in without changing how you play.
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Common queries about Blackjack odds and probability in New Zealand.
When choosing a blackjack game, it pays to look at the house edge, game rules, and return to player (RTP). Generally, the top picks will have more player-friendly rules and fewer card decks in play. These factors can give you a better shot at the table.
Too right! The surrender option in blackjack can make a real difference to your odds. Without it, the house edge goes up by 0.08%. It might not sound like much, but in the world of pokies and table games, every little bit counts towards the overall percentage. So keep an eye out for this option when you're having a punt at the casino.
Mastering basic blackjack strategy can slash the house edge from a hefty 8% down to a mere 0.2% - 0.5%. Just keep in mind, the actual advantage you gain depends on the specific table rules you're playing under.
When it comes to casino games, single-deck Blackjack offers punters the best shot at winning. Using just one deck instead of six or eight makes a huge difference, slashing the house edge from 17% down to a mere 0.13%. That's a pretty sweet deal for any keen player looking to maximise their chances at the tables.
Knowing your way around blackjack strategy can boost your odds of winning to about 50%. That said, you might still hit a rough patch. The likelihood of getting caught in a losing streak is roughly 0.2% - or about 1 in 510. While those are pretty decent odds, it's worth keeping in mind when you're at the table.
Twenty's your best bet for a win in blackjack, giving you the upper hand in each round. Punters holding a twenty have a solid 70.2% chance of coming out on top, with only 12.2% copping a loss and 17.6% ending in a draw.
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